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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Public Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 136.2W ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 136.2 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph, and this general motion should continue through Wednesday afternoon. A turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed should begin late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-10-07 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070245 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070244 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 136.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-06 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 20:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 21:32:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated numerous 40-kt winds. Marie should continue to gradually spin down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure Friday. Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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