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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 28
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 133.5W ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 133.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-10-05 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning. A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to 43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a trough by late this week. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 21.4, -132.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 27
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 132.7W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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