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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 24
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE WEAKENS AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 130.1W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 130.1 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected. Marie is forecast to become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050235 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-04 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted very much. The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h. After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low at 96 and 120 h. High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast. The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-10-04 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042032 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 25N 130W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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