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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-05 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050832 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the southwest of any remaining deep convection. ASCAT data, however, came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the satellite presentation alone would suggest. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data. Marie should weaken during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear. Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Remnant low status is expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current trends. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning. A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert much influence. The new forecast is shifted southward from 48 hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050830 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-05 04:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 02:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 03:40:31 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE WEAKENS AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Oct 4 the center of Marie was located near 20.6, -130.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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