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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-10-05 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 132.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 132.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-05 16:52:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 14:52:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 14:52:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-10-05 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051450 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi between those two features. The various satellite intensity estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt. However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the center, and no regeneration of convection near the center anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend continues. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected in a couple of days as the cyclone becomes a more shallow system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-10-05 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 051450 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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