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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie continues to gradually spin down this morning, and the impressive burst of convection that developed near the surface center last night, now consists of a shrinking cloud mass with significantly warming cloud tops. Assuming some weakening since the last night's METOP-A and B scatterometer passes indicating peak winds of 40 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt which is also supported by a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and through a high statically stable air mass. The persistent, harsh vertical shear environment has displaced what remains of the cyclone's associated deep convection well to the northeast of the center. The Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the large-scale models are in general agreement with Marie degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 3 days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The initial motion estimate is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving toward the west-northwest through Wednesday evening. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should continue to gradually spin down while moving westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE ON LIFE SUPPORT... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Marie was located near 22.1, -135.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE ON LIFE SUPPORT... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 135.1W ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 135.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 061443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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