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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-03 10:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 08:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 08:40:06 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-03 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 122 WTPZ43 KNHC 030838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to 115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength. The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than 25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical cyclone devoid of deep convection. Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Marie was located near 17.9, -126.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 126.4W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 126.4 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening later today, and this weakening trend should continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030837 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 1 30(31) 41(72) 9(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 130W 50 X 3( 3) 24(27) 13(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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