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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-10-03 22:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 032044 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 14 50(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 130W 50 1 13(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 130W 64 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-03 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Marie was located near 19.1, -127.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 19
2020-10-03 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 804 WTPZ33 KNHC 032044 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...MARIE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 127.3W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.3 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is expected to continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-03 22:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032043 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 127.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-03 16:40:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 14:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 14:40:16 GMT
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