je.st
news
Tag: marie
Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-03 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031438 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie shows little signs of weakening this morning as its satellite presentation remains impressive. A closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -65 degrees C surrounds a well-defined 20 nm eye. The initial intensity is maintained at 115 kt based on a T6.0 Dvorak classification from SAB, which is supported by the latest ADT estimates. Marie is approaching an environment of increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius, which should induce weakening beginning later today that will continue through early next week. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates the vertical wind shear will strengthen to 30 kt by Mon and continue increasing through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, Marie is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday and a tropical depression by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is held a bit higher than the model consensus through the first 12-24 hours of the forecast, since Marie has yet to show signs of weakening. As the environmental conditions become increasingly hostile, the official forecast shows more rapid weakening in line with the consensus intensity guidance. By day 5, simulated satellite imagery suggests the system will be a remnant low devoid of deep convection. Marie's initial motion is 310/8 kt, and the system is expected to generally continue moving northwestward for the next several days along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. A deep-layer trough is expected to dig north of Marie during the middle of next week, which should begin turning the system more northward toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. A larger spread in the guidance is noted at days 4-5, as it remains somewhat unclear how much the trough will influence the weakening system based on timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF models. Overall, the NHC track forecast remains fairly close to the previous one, with slight changes based on the consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 126.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
Tags: number
discussion
marie
forecast
Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-10-03 16:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031436 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 2 60(62) 21(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 130W 50 X 11(11) 30(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 130W 64 X 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-03 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Marie was located near 18.4, -126.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 289 WTPZ33 KNHC 031435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 126.9W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 126.9 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with little change in speed is expected to continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening later today, and a more rapid weakening trend is forecast into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
Tags: number
public
marie
advisory
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031434 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 345NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 95NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Tags: number
marie
advisory
forecast
Sites : [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »