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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-04 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Marie was located near 20.3, -128.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 22
2020-10-04 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward during the next several days with some reduction in forward speed commencing Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by Monday night, and further weaken to a depression by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-10-04 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041444 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 24 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-10-04 16:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041444 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-04 10:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040834 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye, and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is beginning to decouple from the low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates from TAFB/SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler waters. Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast then. The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near or below the model consensus. The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance is fairly divergent at long range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough. The new forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little west of the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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