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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-18 22:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-18 22:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 182040 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-09-18 22:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182040 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 50.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-18 16:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:58:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:58:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-18 16:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181454 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center. While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived ASCAT-C scatterometer pass. Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear. While this type of environment could support even more strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models. Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the environmental factors become more clear. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF model and the corrected-consensus forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued for a portion of this area this afternoon or evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.4N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.3N 69.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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