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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-19 13:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 16.4, -53.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 8A
2019-09-19 13:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191155 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 53.9W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-19 13:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:55:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:32:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-19 11:18:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:18:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:32:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-19 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190851 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 A fortuitous 0531 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that Jerry's inner core has significantly become better organized this morning. The image revealed a nearly enclosed banding eye feature with the curved band wrapping around the east portion of the cyclone. Based on the much improved cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory. Jerry is expected to strengthen further in the short term and become a hurricane later today. Afterward, the statistical-dynamical intensity models show some moderate northwesterly shear impinging on the northern half of the cyclone, which should arrest the early period intensification. Beyond the 48 hour period, a majority of the large-scale models indicate increasing westerly vertical shear as Jerry moves northwest of an upper anti-cyclone situated to the north of Hispaniola. Therefore, a weakening trend is expected through the remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is slightly below the previous advisory after the 48 hour period, but above the HFIP HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and as well as the HWRF. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/14 kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone is forecast to be steered by the southeasterly flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry through the 48 hour period. Around day 3, Jerry is likely to turn northwest to north-northwest, in response to a growing weakness in the aforementioned mid-tropospheric ridge along 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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