je.st
news
Tag: jerry
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-19 07:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 15.7, -52.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 7A
2019-09-19 07:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 042 WTNT35 KNHC 190548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 52.5W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 52.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-19 04:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:43:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:43:54 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-19 04:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant. Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest, north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-19 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 190240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Sites : [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] next »