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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-20 07:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 05:31:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:32:03 GMT
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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-20 04:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:49:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:49:27 GMT
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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-20 04:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200246 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12 to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is near or a little above the model consensus. Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus model, or HCCA, track. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-20 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 18.0, -57.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-20 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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