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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2019-09-19 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 190851 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-19 10:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 16.0, -53.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 8

2019-09-19 10:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190850 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 53.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 8

2019-09-19 10:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 53.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 53.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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