je.st
news
Tag: jerry
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-19 16:57:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191456 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
jerry
forecast
Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-19 16:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 16.8, -54.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
jerry
hurricane
at5al102019
Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-19 16:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191454 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next day before some weakening begins this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
advisory
jerry
Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-19 16:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 191454 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-09-19 16:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191452 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.4W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.4W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 54.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
jerry
forecast
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »