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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 10

2019-09-19 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192040 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 55.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Jerry Graphics

2019-09-19 19:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 17:53:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:32:11 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-19 19:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY GETTING STRONGER... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 17.2, -55.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 9A

2019-09-19 19:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191753 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY GETTING STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 55.2W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 55.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west- northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day before some weakening begins this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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