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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-21 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212051 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......390NE 120SE 120SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 360SE 450SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...330NE 150SE 130SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 11
2020-10-21 19:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211741 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Special Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON IS STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 59.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this afternoon, followed by little change in strength or gradual weakening into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-21 19:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211739 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 10
2020-10-21 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 59.1W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 59.1 West. Epsilon is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed by little change in strength into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-21 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 530SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 59.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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