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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080242 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 56.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080242 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 56.8W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 29A
2021-09-08 01:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 385 WTNT32 KNHC 072355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS LARGE LARRY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 56.5W ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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