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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 29
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 56.3W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 072052 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 56.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072040 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 28A
2021-09-07 19:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 625 WTNT32 KNHC 071748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 55.8W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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