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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-11-22 09:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-19 10:08:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 08:39:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 09:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190835 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E remains poorly organized. While the convection has increased during the past several hours, the low-level center appears to be east of the southern end of the convective area due to ongoing southeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and thus the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 355/5. A developing mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the depression should result in a turn toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours, with this motion continuing through 48 hours. After that time, a mid-latitude westerly trough moving into the northeastern Pacific should break the ridge with the depression turning northwestward and northward. While the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, after 72 hours there is still a significant spread as to where the depression may make the northward turn. The new forecast track is a little to the south of the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, then is a little east of it after that time. The depression is expected to remain over warm sea surface temperatures for the next three days or so, and the current shear is forecast to subside to low values between 12-48 hours. However, despite these apparently favorable conditions, the intensity guidance forecasts only modest strengthening during the next couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to weaken. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.7N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-19 09:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Nov 19 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 13.7, -106.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 106.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, with a motion toward the west-northwest expected tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later todat or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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