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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-11-19 09:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-19 04:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 02:36:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 03:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-11-19 03:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 The depression is poorly organized with the low-level center well separated from the mid-level circulation as indicated by several microwave images. Similar to earlier today, the low-level center continues to be located to the southeast of the weakening convection, indicating that southeasterly shear still prevails. Initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is an opportunity for the depression to strengthen slightly during the next day or two, while a narrow ridge builds to the north of the cyclone and the shear decreases. Most of the intensity models forecast some increase in the winds, and so does the NHC forecast. In fact, the NHC forecast still brings the depression to tropical storm status in about 12 to 24 hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, the effects of cooler waters and dry air should result in weakening. The center has moved very little during the past several hours, or perhaps it has has been drifting eastward and then northward around a larger cyclonic gyre. Most of the global models build a ridge to the north of the cyclone soon, and this steering pattern should force the depression to begin to move on a west-northwest track early Thursday. It should then continue with this general motion for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a new mid-latitude trough is forecast to approach from the west, weakening the ridge and inducing a northward motion. However, there is little confidence in the track forecast by the end of the period due to large spread in the model tracks. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus, and is a little to the east of the previous NHC forecast beyond 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 13.2N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.6N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 19.0N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-11-19 03:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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