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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-20 16:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 467 WTNT43 KNHC 201442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning. Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of 20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring mainly over water. Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official foreast. As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global models. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 33.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-06-20 16:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 201442 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) RALEIGH NC 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 20(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SURF CITY NC 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 33.8, -84.2 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 12
2021-06-20 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...DEPRESSION STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 84.2W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ENE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early Monday over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across the eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina into eastern North Carolina through Monday morning. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-06-20 16:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 84.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 84.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 84.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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