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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 07:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM CLAUDETTE PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 32.9, -86.7 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-06-20 07:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200538 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM CLAUDETTE PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 86.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM S OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for a portion of the watch area this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 86.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and move over the coasts of the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico well to the south of the center. Little change in strength is expected today. However, the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia, and across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-20 04:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 02:41:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 03:22:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dolores Graphics
2021-06-20 04:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 02:40:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 03:28:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200239 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large area of convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant. In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee Surface observation indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the center. Surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb. The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower than before, 050/12 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36- 72 h. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and has changed little since the last advisory. So, the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 36 h point. The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of spread. On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic. On the other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt once the system is over water. The ECMWF and Canadian models lie between these extremes. The model forecasts do not show any strong baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification shown by the UKMET. On the other hand, the short-term trends in the cyclone's organization currently favor the stronger model forecasts. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large extratropical low over eastern Canada. If the current trends continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories. It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the current watch area on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of this area early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 32.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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