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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-06-20 10:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SURF CITY NC 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) FLORENCE SC 34 X 27(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 33.3, -85.8 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 11
2021-06-20 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 85.8W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South Carolina from South Santee River to Little River Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 85.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coasts of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be located south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected by late today, and Claudette is expected to become a tropical storm again on Monday over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Georgia, and Upstate South Carolina through the morning hours. As the system tracks north and east, bands of heavy rain will occur across portions of central and southern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina into eastern North Carolina through Monday morning resulting in rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-06-20 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200843 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 85.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 85.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 85.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-20 07:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 05:39:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 03:22:51 GMT
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