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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 87.0W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 87.0W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 80SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Dolores Public Advisory Number 8
2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolores Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INLAND MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 104.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is forecast to dissipate by Sunday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores or its remnants will produce an additional 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-06-20 04:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-20 02:01:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 21.3, -104.2 with movement NNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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