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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2020-08-16 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:44:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:44:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 041 WTPZ41 KNHC 160843 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However, in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model prediction. Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the middle of the track guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 087 FOPZ11 KNHC 160843 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112020)
2020-08-16 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Eleven-E was located near 19.5, -119.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160842 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 119.0W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 119.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm today, however weakening is expected thereafter, and the system is expected to become a remnant low by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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