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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-15 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the cyclone. However, it didn't persist for long and convection is mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has only been slightly adjusted in that direction. Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly supported by the global or hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-15 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 15N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 2(25) 1(26) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-15 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOLDING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.0, -133.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-15 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOLDING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 133.7W ABOUT 1705 MI...2740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 133.7 West. The depression has been stationary for the past several hours. It is forecast to meander for the next several days, with little overall change in position. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Minor fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next two or three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-15 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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