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Tropical Depression Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-07-25 19:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251749 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...SQUALLS OF GONZALO SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 61.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Trinidad and Tobago has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gonzalo was estimated to be near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 20 mph (32 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, Gonzalo or its remnants will move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night, if not sooner. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Gusty conditions associated with squalls will be possible across the southern Windward Islands for the rest of the afternoon. These squalls will spread westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea through Sunday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela. Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the remainder of far northern Venezuela. This includes Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may lead to flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2020-07-23 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:49:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:49:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-23 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232047 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression continues to become better organized, with the center near the eastern edge of a large and broadly curved convective area, with a second curved band to the east. Several subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to 35 kt since the last advisory. However, surface observations, scatterometer data, and data from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission show a large area of 25-30 kt winds south and east of the center, and no 35-kt winds to justify an upgrade at this time. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this evening, and the current expectation is that they will find it is a tropical storm. The center meandered a bit today, possibly due to reformation. However, the system now seems to have resumed a west-northwestward motion of 285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build somewhat during the next several days. This should cause the depression to turn westward by 36-48 h and south of west after about 60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement with that scenario, although there has been a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope and the consensus models. The new NHC forecast track is also shifted a little southward and has the center making landfall along the Texas coast in about 48 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow, and it will be over warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This should allow steady strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased to show a peak intensity of 50 kt just before landfall, followed by steady weakening and eventually dissipation after landfall. The new intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus. The aircraft and scatterometer data show that the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently occurring about 70-90 n mi from the center. This has caused the forecast wind radii to be expanded, and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is needed for portions of the Texas coast. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it is likely to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning has been issued. 2. The tropical cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.1N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 26.5N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 27.5N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 27.6N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 27.5N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-23 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 the center of Eight was located near 26.1, -90.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-23 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a topical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the tropical cyclone are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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