je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-23 16:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better organized, with a better-defined center located near the northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the depression. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build during the several days. This should cause the depression to turn more westward by 48-60 h and south of west after about 72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement with that scenario, and the new NHC forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. The new forecast track has the center making landfall along the Texas coast between 48-60 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, so at least slow strengthening is expected until landfall. The new intensity forecast, which lies a little below the intensity consensus, now calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt before landfall. Data from the Hurricane Hunter will give more details on whether the structure of the cyclone has improved or not, which will be incorporated into the next forecast cycle. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast. These rains could result in flash flooding and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.3N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-23 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 the center of Eight was located near 26.3, -90.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-23 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 90.7W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the depression. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This rain may result in flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor flooding across the west-central Gulf Coast and into portions of south Texas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-23 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 231449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) 1(18) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-23 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [406] [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] [418] [419] [420] [421] [422] [423] [424] [425] next »