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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3

2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 412 WTPZ35 KNHC 080848 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 107.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 107.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)

2021-09-08 07:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.3, -107.3 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A

2021-09-08 07:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression has been meandering for much of the last day or so, and the longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued motion toward the northwest but with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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