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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2021-09-07 22:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 20:44:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 21:29:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-07 22:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072041 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Over the past day or so, convection has gradually become better organized in association with the area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is now a large curved band to the east of the center, and outflow is increasing in all quadrants. Based on the improving convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. An ASCAT-B overpass a few hours ago indicated the peak winds associated with the depression were 26 kt, and assuming some undersampling, the initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The depression has been moving slowly west-northwestward today, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. Another ridge is forecast to begin building from the southwestern United States to over northern Mexico tonight, which should turn the cyclone to the northwest. The system should then gradually accelerate through midweek as it gets caught in the flow between this ridge, and a mid- to upper-level trough to its west. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to the various model consensus solutions. It should be noted that based on this track forecast, the center of the cyclone would approach within 120 n mi of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday. Therefore, any deviation in the track to the right would increase the chance for impacts to that area. There are very favorable environmental conditions around the depression that should allow for strengthening over the next couple of days. The only inhibiting factor for quick strengthening in the short term appears to be the lack of a tight circulation and inner-core convection. Because of this, the NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the guidance through the first 24 hours, nearest to the LGEM, as it appears the HWRF/HMON are a bit too aggressive in intensifying the cyclone during that time. By 24 hours, it is assumed that the inner-core will become better established, and faster strengthening is indicated from 24 to 48 hours. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a dry, stable atmospheric environment, which should cause weakening. By this weekend, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 hours is very near the IVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.2N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-07 22:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 11(36) X(36) X(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 9(10) 44(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.2, -107.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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