je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-10-11 22:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112056 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Entrainment of dry mid-level air along with some modest north-northwesterly mid-level shear has caused Pamela's low-level circulation to become slightly exposed just northwest of the somewhat ragged inner-core convection. Upper-level outflow, however, has improved in all quadrants, with a narrow equatorward outflow channel having developed in the eastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Pamela's intensity was increased to 60 kt at 1800 UTC based on satellite current-intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.7/59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. However, 60 kt might be a little generous at the 2100 UTC advisory time, given that the low-level center has recently become partially exposed. The motion estimate is northwestward or 320/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. This current slow northwestward motion should continue this afternoon and evening as Pamela approaches the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. Later tonight, the cyclone is expected to turn slowly northward, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night as Pamela gets caught up in moderate southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest and west. This developing flow pattern is depicted quite well by all of the global and regional models, and should result in Pamela accelerating northeastward on Wednesday right up until the storm makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted a little to the right again, and is close to the middle of the tightly packed TCVE, GFEX, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE consensus track-model envelope. The global and regional models are in very good agreement that the current slight southeastward tilt to the vortex column should abate within the next 6 hours or so, along with the dry mid-level air mixing out. As a result, deep convection should re-fire near the center later tonight, resulting in the development of an eyewall, which will create the necessary chimney effect to allow Pamela to resume its earlier rapid intensification trend. In fact, all of the models now show strengthening right up until the cyclone makes landfall on Wednesday due to the upper-level outflow pattern expanding, along with the development of poleward and equatorward outflow channels by late Tuesday. The new official intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, and lies near the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is still expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After landfall occurs, rapid weakening is forecast due to the cyclone moving over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, the higher elevations of north-central Mexico could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. Furthermore, deep moisture associated with Pamela will gradually overspread much of north-central and northeastern Mexico late on Wednesday, and then move into southern and central Texas on Thursday, enhancing the rainfall potential in those areas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela on Tuesday during the late morning and early afternoon to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of Pamela and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.2N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112054 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 108.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the current Watch areas later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur late tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-10-11 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112054 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 53(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 45(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 2 58(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 647 WTPZ21 KNHC 112053 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-10-11 19:49:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111749 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 108.2W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required tonight for portions of the current Watch areas by this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.2 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur... 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »