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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-10-10 22:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 211 FOPZ11 KNHC 102039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 56(63) 2(65) X(65) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 59(65) 1(66) X(66) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 41(66) X(66) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 28(34) 2(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 13(61) X(61) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 57(72) 17(89) 1(90) X(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 24(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 34(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 3
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Pamela. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-10-10 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...COULD IMPACT A PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 104.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Tuesday night and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-10-10 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 101440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 13(67) X(67) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 17(68) X(68) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) X(32) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 59(65) X(65) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 12(41) X(41) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 44(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 34 55 X(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 9( 9) 14(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 32(41) 48(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 52(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 44(61) 19(80) X(80) X(80) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 21(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-10-10 10:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100858 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The system we have been monitoring over the last several days off the southern coast of Mexico has been gradually improving in organization. An earlier ASCAT-A pass at 0257 UTC indicated that a closed surface vortex was developing, especially after investigating the ambiguity wind solutions from the instrument. In addition, the 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak from TAFB was at T2.0/30 kt, which is in good agreement with the peak winds (29 kt) from the earlier scatterometer data. Since that time, convection near the estimated center has only increased in coverage and intensity. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on TD16-E, the first tropical cyclone in the East Pacific basin in nearly a month. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer and satellite intensity estimate. The current motion of the depression is estimated at 290/15 kt, though some uncertainty exists given the system is in its formative stages. At present, the cyclone is situated on the equatorward side of an expensive mid-level ridge centered over Mexico that stretches westward into the East Pacific. This ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest over then next day or so. Thereafter, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the western United States, creating a pronounced weakness in the mid-level ridge steering the system. The net result of this synoptic pattern change is that the tropical cyclone will likely bend sharply right as the ridge becomes oriented to its east, leading to a turn north to then northeastward in the 48-72 hour forecast. This track evolution would likely steer the system to the mainland Mexican coast in around 96 hours. The latest track guidance is in pretty good agreement on the general track, though investigating the GFS and ECMWF ensembles solutions reveals significant uncertainty in the along-track spread of the current forecast track. The initial NHC track forecast has been chosen to lie near the consensus aids, splitting the difference between the TVCA and HCCA solutions. The environment over the depression appears quite favorable for intensification, with low shear (around 10 kt) high mid-level moisture (around 70 percent) and warm sea-surface temperatures (29-30 C) expected to persist for the next three days. It may take 12-24 hours for an inner core to become established, but after this structural change occurs, the system appears poised for substantial intensification. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates a 44 percent chance of a 65 knot increase in intensity over the next 72 hours. The first NHC intensity forecast follows suit, showing a peak intensity of 95 kt in 72 hours. It is worth noting that this intensity forecast is less than some of the more bullish guidance, including the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and this initial forecast could be conservative. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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