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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-10-11 17:13:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111513 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Corrected to update Key Messages Pamela's convective pattern has undergone a pronounced bursting phase since the previous advisory, including significant lightning activity in the inner-core region near the center, with formation of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) now evident. However, the lightning ceased about 5 h ago and the CDO has recently become a little disheveled looking along with pronounced warming of the cloud tops compared to the much colder cloud tops colder than -85C just a few hours ago. The advisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on an average of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T3.5/55 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Pamela has slowed down significantly since the previous advisory, and the motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/07 kt. A northwestward motion should continue today as Pamela approaches an east-to-west-oriented subtropical ridge axis situated along 19-20N latitude. By late tonight, the storm is forecast to turn slowly northward, followed by a motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed by Tuesday night. As Pamela gets caught up in the moderate southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge to its south and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest, the cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday until Pamela makes landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track is a tad to the right of and slightly faster than the previous advisory track, and close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. The recent disruption in Pamela's convective pattern has likely been due the cyclone having entrained a slug of dry air. However, this convective hiatus will likely be short-lived due to the robust inner-core wind field noted in earlier ASCAT wind data, which should allow for Pamela to mix out any dry air. Moderate northerly shear is forecast to subside over the next 24 hours, giving way to the development of an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, along with an impressive outflow pattern developing in the northern semicircle. The combination of a tight inner-core wind field, low vertical shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist mid-level environment should allow for Pamela to rapid intensify for the next 36 hours -- possibly even right up until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The latest official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is an average of the consensus intensity models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA, an remains at the high end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After inland occurs, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, higher elevations could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela Tuesday late morning and early afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of Pamela and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.8N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-10-11 17:01:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111501 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Pamela's convective pattern has undergone a pronounced bursting phase since the previous advisory, including significant lightning activity in the inner-core region near the center, with formation of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) now evident. However, the lightning ceased about 5 h ago and the CDO has recently become a little disheveled looking along with pronounced warming of the cloud tops compared to the much colder cloud tops colder than -85C just a few hours ago. The advisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on an average of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T3.5/55 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Pamela has slowed down significantly since the previous advisory, and the motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/07 kt. A northwestward motion should continue today as Pamela approaches an east-to-west-oriented subtropical ridge axis situated along 19-20N latitude. By late tonight, the storm is forecast to turn slowly northward, followed by a motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed by Tuesday night. As Pamela gets caught up in the moderate southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge to its south and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest, the cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday until Pamela makes landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track is a tad to the right of and slightly faster than the previous advisory track, and close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. The recent disruption in Pamela's convective pattern has likely been due the cyclone having entrained a slug of dry air. However, this convective hiatus will likely be short-lived due to the robust inner-core wind field noted in earlier ASCAT wind data, which should allow for Pamela to mix out any dry air. Moderate northerly shear is forecast to subside over the next 24 hours, giving way to the development of an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, along with an impressive outflow pattern developing in the northern semicircle. The combination of a tight inner-core wind field, low vertical shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist mid-level environment should allow for Pamela to rapid intensify for the next 36 hours -- possibly even right up until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The latest official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is an average of the consensus intensity models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA, an remains at the high end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After inland occurs, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, higher elevations could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela Tuesday late morning and early afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Hurricane watches will likely be required later this morning. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area later today. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.8N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-10-11 17:00:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111500 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 23(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 27(58) X(58) X(58) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 19(22) 31(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 71(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 10(50) X(50) X(50) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 66(67) 20(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X 14(14) 26(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 23(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:59:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111459 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 108.1W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya southward to Escuinapa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Bahia Tempehuaya northward to Altata, and also from Escuinapa southward to San Blas, including all the Isla Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for extreme southern Baja California Sur from Los Barilles southward to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required tonight for portions of the current Watch areas by this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur... 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111457 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA SOUTHWARD TO ESCUINAPA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA NORTHWARD TO ALTATA...AND ALSO FROM ESCUINAPA SOUTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING ALL THE ISLA MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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