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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-10-12 10:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 003 WTPZ41 KNHC 120834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 After being relatively steady in strength for the past 12 hours or so, satellite images indicate that Pamela has resumed intensifying. A large area of deep convection has developed during the past several hours, and the center is estimated to be located near the middle of the convective mass. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 4.0/65 kt, and therefore, Pamela has now been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. Pamela has made the expected turn to the north, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/10 kt. The system is now on the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause it to continue moving northward today. However, by tonight, Pamela is forecast to become embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that feature should cause the hurricane to move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central Mexico. After the storm moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its remnants should accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico by the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Even though Pamela has not strengthened as quickly as thought up to this point, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed much. The storm is expected to be in generally favorable conditions to gain strength until it reaches the coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to predict steady to rapid strengthening, and Pamela is likely to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall. After landfall, Pamela is expected to rapidly decay due to the rugged terrain of Mexico, and it should ultimately dissipate over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today an tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.2N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 9
2021-10-12 10:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 108.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should continue today, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-10-12 10:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120833 PWSEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 4( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 8 54(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 3 58(61) 32(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 50 X 11(11) 54(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MAZATLAN 64 X 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAN BLAS 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 47 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-10-12 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120833 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLA MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-10-12 07:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120534 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 108.9W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane later this morning, and be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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