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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-10-11 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The tropical storm has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. A large area of deep convection continues, but the center is located near the northern edge of the thunderstorms due to northerly shear. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range in the northeastern quadrant, and all of the latest Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt. Based on this satellite data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Pamela is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and a west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another 12 hours as the storm moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. By tonight and early Tuesday, Pamela should reach the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause a turn toward the north. A faster motion to the northeast is expected beginning Tuesday night when the storm becomes embedded in the flow on the southeast side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that should bring the cyclone inland over west-central Mexico on Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Pamela has been gradually strengthening despite moderate northerly shear. The upper-level pattern is expected to become more favorable for the storm later today. These favorable winds aloft combined with warm SSTs and a moist environment should promote steady to rapid strengthening until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and continues to show Pamela becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After Pamela moves inland, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Hurricane watches will likely be required later this morning. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area later today. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move over the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-10-11 10:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110831 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 32(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 32(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 57(61) X(61) X(61) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 36(48) 10(58) X(58) X(58) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 52(82) X(82) X(82) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 2 26(28) 55(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 45(47) 7(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 21(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 31(33) 18(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 5
2021-10-11 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... ...HURRICANE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 107.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango and Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela. Watches will likely be issued for a portion of those states later this morning. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected today. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late today into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeast motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-10-11 10:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 454 WTPZ21 KNHC 110830 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-10-11 04:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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