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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-09-01 17:00:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 448 WTNT45 KNHC 011459 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 It has been difficult to pinpoint where the low-level circulation of Kate is this morning. After last night's diurnal convective maximum, the remaining convection has taken on a very disorganized structure, with a mid-level vortex being left behind to the south, while deeper, but more outflow driven convection is racing off to the north, ahead of the estimated low-level center position. A recently received 1211 UTC ASCAT-A pass indicated that Kate's low-level circulation is still closed, but just barely. The scatterometer wind data supports maintaining the current intensity at 30-kt, which also agrees with the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The estimated motion is continuing off to the north-northwest, at 340/9 kt. Kate appears to now be primarily steered by the low-level flow around a subtropical ridge located to its east. A general north-northwest motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north and north-northeast around the periphery of this ridge. The latest NHC track guidance has been adjusted a bit right of the previous track, shifting towards the latest consensus guidance (TVCN) that can still track the cyclone beyond 24 hours. A 0958 UTC SSMIS microwave pass suggested that the better organized structure observed last night has decayed, with the low- and mid-level centers quite misaligned. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS is now between 15-20 kt out of the north. This shear is likely contributing to the vortex tilt, while also helping to import very dry mid-level air, preventing Kate's convective activity from organizing. The bulk of the intensity guidance is in agreement that gradual spin down of the low-level circulation will occur over the next several days, with the deterministic ECMWF model suggesting Kate could open up to a trough as soon as tomorrow. The latest NHC intensity forecast makes Kate a remnant low in 36 hours, with dissipation after 48 hours. However, given the current structure, this could occur sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 26.8N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...STRUGGLING KATE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 52.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 52.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Thursday before the cyclone dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next several days. Kate is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow, and dissipate entirely on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011454 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-01 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011450 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Larry is becoming better organized, with curved convective bands increasing around the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates were in the 35-55 kt range around 12Z, and ASCAT data near the time showed 40 kt winds. Based on increasing organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Larry is moving quickly westward, although there is some uncertainty in the forward speed due to the possibility the center re-formed during the night. The best estimate of the motion is 270/19 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, the cyclone is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. After 36 h, there is some spread in the track guidance, with the GFS generally on the right side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET on the left side, a spread often seen for westward-moving cyclones south of the Bermuda-Azores high. Due to a more westerly initial position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 48-60 h due to light shear, a moist environment, and sea surface temperatures of 27-28C along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast calls for Larry to become a hurricane in about 24 h and a major hurricane near 60 h. After that time, the global models suggest the possibility of dry air entrainment, and by 120 h there is likely to be moderate westerly shear over the cyclone. Based on this forecast environment and the guidance trends, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength from 72-120 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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larry
Tropical Storm Larry Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-01 16:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 011449 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 27.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 27.6 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Larry is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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