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Tropical Storm Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 302035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Kate Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 ...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is possible by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 18A
2021-08-30 19:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301750 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 90.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.45 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over western and central Mississippi this afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move over northeastern Mississippi tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression later this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to southeast of the center over water. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 997 mb (29.45 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Morgan City, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding and riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida will continue to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers will remain elevated into next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-30 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301455 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 Although strong upper-level westerly shear continues to plague the cyclone, its satellite presentation improved early this morning as its center moved closer to the edge of the convective cloud mass to its east. An ASCAT-A pass from 1100 UTC revealed an area of 30 to 40-kt winds in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with some slightly stronger winds possibly rain contaminated underneath the deep convection. Additionally, UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates have risen to around 40 kt within the past few hours, and TAFB gave a T2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak classification at 12 UTC. These data support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Kate. Its initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, although that could be a bit generous given recent satellite trends. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is allowing Kate to move just west of due north, or 355/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or so before the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished over the central Atlantic Ocean. Thereafter, the cyclone should move northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. By Friday, an approaching deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to accelerate northward or north-northeastward through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance has shifted a little left of the previous NHC track, and so the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The near-term intensity forecast is tricky, as the subtropical jet stream will maintain strong west-northwesterly shear over Kate during the next 24 to 36 h. In fact, recent satellite imagery of the cyclone shows the center is already more exposed than earlier this morning as the convection is waning. Kate is likely to continue exhibiting a bursting convective pattern over the next couple of days, which would likely result in some intensity fluctuations that hover around the tropical-storm-force threshold. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Kate as a 35-kt tropical storm during the first 36 h of the forecast. If Kate survives the hostile shear conditions, some modest intensification will be possible while the cyclone remains over 28 deg C waters. However, Kate will encounter a drier mid-level environment as it gains latitude, so significant strengthening does not appear likely at this time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one beyond 48 h, as it shows only modest strengthening with time. By day 5, the global models suggest that Kate could be becoming absorbed by a larger extratropical low expected to form and deepen near Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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