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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low. The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning, with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 36.7N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julian Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 292039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julian Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...JULIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 44.6W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 44.6 West. Julian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Julian is expected to become post-tropical by Monday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 292039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-29 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 292038 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-29 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear. Since there has been no appreciable change to the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory. The source of the shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into the depression. In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change through 36 hours. By 48 hours, the system should have moved north of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters should finally allow for some strengthening. During the latter part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Much of this forecast is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36 hours, however. The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic. Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the depression, causing it to turn back to the north and north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period. This developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than previously thought, and most of the models have shifted significantly westward after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as the deterministic models and the consensus aids. Therefore, additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.7N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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