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Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-30 04:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300239 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.3N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.1N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 48.5N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 53.0N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 57.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 41.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-30 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300237 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center. Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period, then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus. The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to the track may be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.1N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-30 04:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 254 FONT15 KNHC 300237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-30 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 50.6W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 50.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northward motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow strengthening is forecast to begin by midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-30 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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