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Tropical Storm Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-01 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 010842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-01 10:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 010842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 23.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.5N 27.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 30.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.1N 33.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 36.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 24.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Ida Public Advisory Number 25
2021-09-01 10:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010833 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 After the earlier convective hiatus, a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity containing numerous lightning strikes has developed over and to the east of the low-level center. In addition, upper-level outflow has been expanding to the west, an indication that the hostile shear conditions that have been plaguing the cyclone the past few days has finally waned. ASCAT data around 0000-0100Z showed peak winds near 25 kt; however, the recent sharp increase in deep convection along with a consensus Dvorak subjective intensity of T2.0/30 kt supports increasing the intensity to 30 kt. The 30-kt advisory intensity is also supported by UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of T2.1/31 kt from ADT and 39 kt from SATCON. The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Kate is moving north-northwestward between a small mid- to upper-level low to the south of the cyclone and deep-layer ridge located to the north and east of the system. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn back toward the north on Thursday as Kate rounds the western periphery of the ridge. By Friday, recurvature toward the north-northeast and northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies is forecast when the cyclone will be lifted out by an eastward-moving deep-layer trough currently crossing the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the tightly packed consensus track forecast models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. A 0505 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass revealed that Kate's compact circulation had tightened up considerably since the earlier 0100 UTC ASCAT wind data, which shows a broad and elongated inner-core wind field. Also, Kate is currently passing between two small upper-level lows to the north and south of the cyclone, which is aiding the upper-level divergence across the system, albeit somewhat constrained due to the short distance of only about 300 nmi between the two upper lows. Given the locally enhanced outflow and the recent increase in deep convection, it s not out of the question that Kate could restrengthen back into a low-end tropical storm during the next 24 hours or so. However, the entrainment of dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent should prevent any significant or rapid restrengthening from occuring. by 48 hours, moderate northerly shear and even drier mid-level air should cause convection weaken, resulting in a gradual spin down of the circulation and eventual dissipation by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the consensus intensity models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 211 FONT15 KNHC 010833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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