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Tropical Storm Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-30 16:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 301454 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-30 16:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 90.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings have been discontinued for the Louisiana coast west of the Pearl River, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over western and central Mississippi this afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move over northeastern Mississippi tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to southeast of the center over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Morgan City, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through early afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding and riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida will continue to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers will remain elevated into next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-30 16:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 301454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 The center of Ida has moved farther inland over western Mississippi this morning and NWS Doppler radar velocities and surface observations indicate that the tropical cyclone's winds have continued to decrease. The strongest winds are located in a band well southeast of the center along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama where recent surface reports indicate 30-35 kt winds are still occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. As Ida's circulation moves farther inland, additional weakening is expected and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this afternoon. Continued weakening should occur while Ida moves over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to become extratropical over the eastern United States by late Wednesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a frontal zone over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. Ida is moving moving just east of due north or 010/8 kt. A north-northeastward turn should occur later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone from the west. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered with very little cross-track spread, although there remains some speed or along-track spread in the guidance. The NHC forecast is near the HCCA and TCVA consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue into this afternoon along portions of the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. 2. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama this afternoon. 3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. 4. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon monoxide poisoning from improper generator use. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 31.9N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1200Z 34.5N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0000Z 35.8N 85.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z 39.5N 75.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-30 16:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 301454 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-30 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 170SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 90.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.5N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.8N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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