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Tropical Storm Kate Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-30 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 301453 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATE... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 50.9W ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is forecast by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-30 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 301453 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 50.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 50.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 17A
2021-08-30 13:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 90.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... *Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, satellite data, and surface observations near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southwestern Mississippi this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km), mainly southeast of the center over water. A coastal marine observing site at Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently measured at Biloxi, Mississippi. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA...2-4 ft Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama through this morning or early afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-30 10:59:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300859 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Ida is now located well inland over southwestern Mississippi and weakening rapidly. However, Doppler velocity data from the Slidell, Louisiana, WSR-88D radar before it went down was still indicating velocity values near 90 kt between 4,000-4,500 ft, while the latest velocity data from Jackson, Mississippi, have been in the 70-75 kt range between 7,500 and 8,000 ft well east of the center. Thus, Ida will still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in some of the stronger showers and thunderstorms for the next few hours. The intensity at 0600 UTC was 65 kt, which was based on a decay rate of about 10 kt per hour. A slightly slower decay rate of about 5 kt per hour has been used since then, which is the basis for the 50-kt advisory intensity at 0900 UTC. The estimated pressure of 990 mb is based on surface observation data, especially from McComb, Mississippi (KMCB), which has been reporting pressures near 995 mb with 25-30 kt of wind the past couple of hours. The initial motion estimate is now 355/07 kt. Ida should continue moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge situated over the southeastern United States. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone, with that motion continuing through the remainder of the week. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle off the tightly packed consensus models. Rapid weakening will continue as Ida moves farther inland over Mississippi due to land interaction and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt. However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to continue over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through through this morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical depression this evening. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in the day 4-5 period. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then northeastward along the forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue through this morning along portions of the coast between Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through this morning and early afternoon. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, considerable flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 31.0N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1800Z 32.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0600Z 33.7N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1800Z 35.1N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0600Z 36.6N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1800Z 38.1N 80.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 40.1N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 40.5N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-30 10:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300858 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 The deep convection with Tropical Depression Ten is in a sheared bursting pattern this morning, associated with overshooting cloud top temperatures below -80 C. A 0518 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass did show a bit of banding associated with this activity on the 37 GHz low-level channel. However, Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicates this convective activity remains located downshear of the low-level center thanks to very strong 30-50 kt northwesterly flow associated with a subtropical jet at 200 mb. The latest round of subjective Dvorak estimates were 25 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Taking a blend of these estimates and the earlier ASCAT wind data supports keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has resumed a northward motion this morning, with the latest estimate at 360 degrees at 7 kt. A deep-layer trough passing by well to the north is continuing to provide a weakness in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to escape northward. The system could even move a bit east of due north over the next 24-36 hours if down-shear convective bursts help to drag the low-level center a bit right of the steering flow. After 36 hours, the deep-layer trough moves eastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build back in. The net result is that the depression should turn leftward and begin a more northwestward motion by the latter part of this week. The latest track guidance has once again made another westward shift this cycle after 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction as well. However, the latest track is still not as far west as the GFS & ECMWF models, and further westward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Strong upper-level flow is the primary hindrance for the depression currently. In fact, both GFS & ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the vertical wind shear remaining above 30 kt for the next 24 hours as the cyclone moves through the core of a subtropical jet streak. Interestingly, this shearing flow seems to be mostly based in the upper-levels, with much lower mid-level shear diagnosed by UW-CIMSS. This lower mid-level shear may help explain why deep-convection has not yet been completely stripped away from the low-level center. After 36 hours, most of the guidance agrees that an upper-level low will cut off to the southwest of the depression, providing a more favorable upper-level environment over the system. However, it remains unclear what will be left of the depression by that time, and the latest 00z ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON runs suggest the vortex will be too weak and diffuse to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain the current intensity through 48 hours, with only modest intensification beginning after that time assuming the circulation is coherent enough to take advantage of the more favorable environment. The latest intensity forecast is just a bit lower than the previous forecast, and is also lower than the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It remains distinctly possible that the depression could become a remnant low if its convection is completely stripped away. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.8N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 22.6N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 23.6N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.8N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 26.1N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 27.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 30.8N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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