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Tropical Depression Ida Public Advisory Number 20
2021-08-31 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-31 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 310233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 Kate is a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical cyclone. Satellite images show an exposed low-level center with a few patches of deep convection on the system's east side. The latest Dvorak classifications range from 25-35 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the circulation this evening. Strong west-northwesterly shear of about 30 kt is expected to persist into early Tuesday, and that could cause some weakening in the short term. Although the shear is expected to lessen after that, Kate will be moving into a drier and more stable airmass. None of the intensity models show much strengthening, and the global models suggest that Kate could dissipate sometime within the next couple of days. The official forecast is again nudged downward and generally shows little change in strength during the next 4 days. Kate, or its remnants, are likely to merge with an extratropical low and associated front in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm has moved little during the past few hours, but a 12-hour motion yields an estimate of 360/5 kt. The storm is moving toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a deep-layer low over the North Atlantic, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. By Wednesday, mid-level ridging building to the northeast of the system should cause it to turn northwestward. However, another trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic is expected to cause Kate to turn northward again toward the end of the week. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus aids and is similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 23.6N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 24.8N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 26.1N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 27.6N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 29.1N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 30.4N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 33.9N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-31 04:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 288 FONT15 KNHC 310233 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kate Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-31 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 310232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 ...KATE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected into Tuesday. A northwestward motion is forecast late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-31 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 310232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.6N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.8N 50.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.1N 51.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.6N 52.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.4N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 33.9N 54.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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