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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...TENACIOUS COMPACT KATE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 51.7W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by this afternoon. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Kate is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday, with the remnant low dissipating on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-01 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Some bursts of convection have been forming within Kate's small circulation during the past several hours, but none of it has any real significant organization. In addition, the low clouds appear to be losing definition, and a very-recent ASCAT-B pass showed that the maximum winds are now only about 25 kt. It's going to be difficult for Kate to make much of a comeback, if at all. Moderate northerly shear, dry mid-level air, upper-level convergence, and an increasingly anticyclonic low-level environment are likely to cause the circulation to spin down further and make it hard for deep convection to persist. Therefore, the NHC official forecast now calls for additional weakening, with Kate likely becoming a remnant low by 36 hours (if not sooner) and dissipating by 72 hours. This scenario is closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions. Located on the southwestern periphery of a low-level area of high pressure, Kate is moving toward the north-northwest (345/9 kt). The depression is forecast to turn toward the northwest by morning, but then recurve around the high toward the north and north-northeast in a couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids and is generally just an update from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 ...KATE UNLIKELY TO LAST FOR ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 51.3W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 51.3 West. Kate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, with Kate forecast to become a remnant low by early Thursday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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