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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA NEAR MAZATLAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SINALOA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 106.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area through this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico beginning later today, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291444 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 775 WTNT45 KNHC 291433 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5, although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5, are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 50.2W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the upcoming week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but the depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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