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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-20 16:48:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201448 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Grace is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Its structure has continued to improve in satellite imagery this morning, with more pronounced curved banding in its northern and eastern semicircles and good upper-level outflow. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 92 kt and peak SFMR winds of 74 kt during a pass through the northeast quadrant earlier this morning. These data support increasing the initial intensity of 75 kt, which makes Grace a hurricane once again. Dropsonde data from the aircraft indicate the minimum pressure has fallen to 982 mb. The warm waters of the Bay of Campeche are expected to support additional intensification through landfall in mainland Mexico later this evening or tonight, despite some light to moderate northerly wind shear. Since the reconnaissance data revealed Grace is strengthening quicker than previously forecast, the official NHC intensity forecast was increased in the short-term. Grace is now forecast to become a 90-kt hurricane in 12 h, which lies on the high end of the intensity guidance. The center of Grace will be well inland by 24 h, and rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as the cyclone moves over the mountains of central Mexico. Although Grace is forecast to dissipate by 48 h, its remnants will likely move into the eastern Pacific and lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone later this weekend or early next week. The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/12 kt. Grace should continue moving westward to west-southwestward through landfall to the south of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and has been adjusted just a bit southward based on the latest multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.6N 94.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 95.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2021-08-20 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 201447 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 3 25(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) TUXPAN MX 34 43 51(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) TUXPAN MX 50 2 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) TUXPAN MX 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 71 5(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) VERACRUZ MX 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 29
2021-08-20 16:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 94.3W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.3 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches) is based on data collected by the aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with tropical storm conditions expected this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-08-20 16:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201446 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 93.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 95.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-20 16:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201445 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days, satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well- established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen. There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in 3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5, in agreement with most of the global models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. 3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 30.4N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 39.8N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 41.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 42.4N 71.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 43.7N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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