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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-20 10:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 875 WTNT23 KNHC 200857 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...AND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT... EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET... MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR...AND WEST OF NEW HAVEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK * KINGS POINT NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK * WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK * WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-20 10:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Deep convection has increased near the center of Grace overnight with improved banding structure over the eastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt and SFMR winds of 58 kt during the aircraft's final pass through the northern portion of the storm prior to 06Z. Based on those observations, the initial wind speed was increased to 60 kt on the 06Z intermediate advisory, and it remains at that value for now. Grace is close to re-gaining hurricane strength, and the next reconnaissance mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning. Grace will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of Campeche today. That, along with light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, are expected to allow for re-intensification until landfall in mainland Mexico tonight. The updated intensity forecast brings Grace to a 75-kt hurricane in 12 hours, and the storm could be slightly stronger when it makes landfall overnight. By 24 h, the center is forecast to be inland, and Grace will likely already to have begun to weaken. Rapid weakening should occur on Saturday as Grace moves farther inland over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, and the circulation is likely to dissipate in around 48 hours. The remnants of Grace are expected to move into the Pacific where they are likely to spawn a new tropical cyclone. The cyclone has been moving westward or 270/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-southwestward until dissipation occurs in a couple days. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.7N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-08-20 10:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 200851 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 34 4 37(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) TAMPICO MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 9 82(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) TUXPAN MX 50 X 43(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) TUXPAN MX 64 X 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) VERACRUZ MX 34 16 35(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) VERACRUZ MX 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 28
2021-08-20 10:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200851 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 93.3W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 93.3 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength this morning. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-08-20 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 998 WTNT22 KNHC 200851 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 93.3W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 93.3W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 93.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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