je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-17 10:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170830 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-08-17 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170547 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 74.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through today. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
grace
storm
Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-08-17 07:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170542 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 85.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF EUFAULA ALABAMA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue early this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by late morning and continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression later this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours. SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-17 07:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 170531 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.5W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Henri is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through this morning. A turn toward the west is forecast by tonight, and a slightly faster westward motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters today, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-17 06:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 170456 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Corrected statement in movement section Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment. Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a clockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [276] [277] [278] [279] [280] [281] [282] [283] [284] [285] [286] [287] [288] [289] [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] next »